{"id":8085877,"date":"2026-09-25T11:21:59","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T18:21:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thewrap.com\/?p=8085877"},"modified":"2026-09-25T13:21:45","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T20:21:45","slug":"best-picture-oscar-predictions-2027-after-festivals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thewrap.com\/creative-content\/movies\/best-picture-oscar-predictions-2027-after-festivals\/","title":{"rendered":"Where Does the Best Picture Oscar Race Stand After the Lackluster Festivals?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n

With the Venice, Telluride and Toronto film festivals in the rearview mirror and the New York Film Festival kicking off on Friday, we should have a pretty good idea of what this year\u2019s awards race will look like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shouldn\u2019t we?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a way, yes, we should. But after a relatively underwhelming Cannes Film Festival back in May, the September trio of festivals was also underwhelming, and the New York lineup is light on much that could alter the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s pick through what we\u2019ve seen and what we expect to happen when the 10,000+ members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences get around to voting in the Best Picture category in early January. We\u2019ll separate them into groups.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Matt
Matt Damon in “The Odyssey” (Credit: Universal Pictures)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Contenders that have already been released<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The big one in this category, of course, is Christopher Nolan\u2019s \u201cThe Odyssey,\u201d<\/a><\/strong> an epic that became the de facto frontrunner when it was released on July 17 and hasn\u2019t budged from that position since then. It did extremely well at the box office, reviews have been strong and it epitomizes a year in which lots of high-profile films tell stories about how we tell stories, with others in that camp including \u201cThe Debut,\u201d \u201cElsinore,\u201d \u201cDigger,\u201d \u201cPrimetime\u201d and \u201cInk.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Being a wire-to-wire favorite isn\u2019t easy, but Nolan did it three years ago with his previous film, \u201cOppenheimer,\u201d another third-week-of-July release. Lots of directors earn back-to-back Best Picture nominations \u2013 Paul Thomas Anderson did it last year, Edward Berger and Denis Villeneuve the year before \u2013 but winning the top prize with consecutive films hasn\u2019t happened since David Lean turned the trick with \u201cBridge on the River Kwai\u201d in 1957 and \u201cLawrence of Arabia\u201d in 1962. The only other director to do it: William Wyler with \u201cMrs. Miniver\u201d in 1942 and \u201cThe Best Years of Our Lives\u201d in 1946. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Francis Ford Coppola directed Best Picture winners only two years apart with the first two \u201cGodfather\u201d movies, as did Frank Lloyd with \u201cCavalcade\u201d and \u201cMutiny on the Bounty\u201d in the 1930s, but Coppola made \u201cThe Conversation\u201d in between his two winners, and Lloyd made three other movies between his.)<\/p>\n\n\n

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\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Matt\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\t'The Odyssey's' 9 Biggest Sequences, Ranked<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Phil Lord and Christopher Miller\u2019s \u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d<\/a> <\/strong>came out even earlier in the year, on March 20, only five days after the Oscar ceremony. But like \u201cSinners\u201d last year and \u201cDune: Part Two\u201d the year before, it\u2019s a bold spring movie that seems to be hanging on in the minds of voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The jury\u2019s still out on a trio of movies that came out in the first half of the year: in order of likelihood, Olivia Wilde\u2019s sharp and entertaining talkfest \u201cThe Invite,\u201d<\/strong> YouTube creator Curry Barker\u2019s horror-movie sensation \u201cObsession\u201d<\/strong> (not a genre that usually finds favor with Oscar voters) and the divisive but crowd-pleasing Michael Jackson biopic (or whitewash?) \u201cMichael.\u201d<\/strong>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich in ‘Wild Horse Nine’ (Searchlight Pictures)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Festival movies that are likely to be nominated<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The fall festivals usually bring the premieres of a few best-pic nominees: Last year, for instance, there was \u201cBugonia\u201d and \u201cFrankenstein\u201d from Venice and \u201cHamnet\u201d from Telluride, the year before \u201cThe Brutalist\u201d from Venice and \u201cConclave\u201d and \u201cNickel Boys\u201d from Telluride. This year, though, I count exactly one sure-fire nominee: Martin McDonagh\u2019s twisted comedy \u201cWild Horse Nine.\u201d<\/a><\/strong> It may not be as strong as the Irish director\u2019s 2022 black comedy \u201cThe Banshees of Inisherin,\u201d which received nine nominations, but it\u2019ll likely do well, buoyed by the affection for a cast headed by John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell and Steve Buscemi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peter Farrelly\u2019s \u201cI Play Rocky\u201d<\/strong> may not be quite as much of a sure thing, but his tale of the making of the 1976 Best Picture winner \u201cRocky\u201d is a genuine crowd-pleaser and seems likely to become the first Toronto Film Festival world premiere to land a nomination since \u201cAmerican Fiction\u201d in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Tender
Kate O’Flynn, Marion Bailey and Alice Bailey Johnson in “Tender Loving Care” (Credit: Bleecker Street)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Festival movies that might be nominated<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This is a much bigger group than the likely nominees. It includes Jesse Eisenberg\u2019s goofy musical \u201cThe Debut,\u201d <\/strong>another crowd-pleaser; Mike Leigh\u2019s wrenching but lovely \u201cTender Loving Care,\u201d<\/strong> with \u201cWidow\u2019s Bay\u201d Emmy winner Kate O\u2019Flynn starring in what the iconic director says will likely be his last movie; and Australian film and theater director Simon Stone\u2019s \u201cElsinore,\u201d<\/strong> with a stunning performance by Andrew Scott as Ian Charleson, the \u201cChariots of Fire\u201d star who played Hamlet in a London theatrical production while he was dying of AIDS in 1989. (It could follow \u201cHamnet\u201d and become the second consecutive nominee to find parallels between Shakespeare\u2019s classic tragedy and the lives of people putting it on.)<\/p>\n\n\n

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\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Tender\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\t'Tender Loving Care' Review: Mike Leigh Delivers Another Gentle Gem<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Other recent festival films in contention are Lance Oppenheim\u2019s \u201cPrimetime,\u201d<\/a><\/strong> with Robert Pattinson as \u201cTo Catch a Predator\u201d host Chris Hansen; Sian Heder\u2019s \u201cCODA\u201d follow-up, \u201cBeing Heumann,\u201d <\/strong>which uses a predominantly disabled cast to tell the story of a 1977 sit-in that was pivotal in the disability-rights movement; and Danny Boyle\u2019s \u201cInk,\u201d<\/strong> in which Boyle\u2019s typically propulsive filmmaking traces the rise of tabloid journalism in England in the 1980s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going back to the Cannes Film Festival in May, you can\u2019t rule out James Gray\u2019s \u201cPaper Tiger,\u201d<\/strong> in which Scarlett Johansson, Miles Teller and Adam Driver play roles based on Gray\u2019s mother, father and uncle; and Jordan Firstman\u2019s entertaining \u201cClub Kid,\u201d<\/strong> which takes \u201cThree Men and a Baby,\u201d drops two of the men and transplants the action to New York gay club scene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\""La
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Festival contenders not in English<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This is an intriguing batch of films, because the increasingly international makeup of the Academy has led to four consecutive years of two non-English Best Picture nominees, and eight straight years of at least one. Two-thirds of those nominees have come from Cannes, which supplied at least six contenders this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The top three seem to be the Palme d\u2019Or winner, Cristian Mungiu\u2019s \u201cFjord,\u201d<\/a><\/strong> austere and provocative; the Spanish drama \u201cLa Bola Negra,\u201d<\/strong> an expansive epic which spans decades in the lives of three gay men and is one of Netflix\u2019s strongest contenders; and \u201cFatherland,\u201d<\/strong> another mid-century black-and-white reverie from Pawel Pawlikowski, who worked this territory fruitfully with his last two movies, \u201cIda\u201d and \u201cCold War.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Asian auteurs Lee Chang-dong and Ryusuke Hamaguchi can\u2019t be discounted, either, with Lee\u2019s \u201cPossible Love\u201d<\/strong> and Hamaguchi\u2019s \u201cAll of a Sudden\u201d<\/strong> telling deep and thoughtful stories from South Korea and Japan, respectively. Russian director Andrey Zvyagintsev, now living in exile in France, delivers a typically powerful look at Russian society in \u201cMinotaur,\u201d <\/strong>though Best Picture is more of a stretch for his dark drama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You
“You Can See Everything” (A24)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Notable documentaries<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

No nonfiction film has ever been nominated for Best Picture, but two of them certainly stole the headlines during the festivals. One, we saw coming: Oscar-winning director Alex Gibney\u2019s \u201cMusk\u201d<\/strong> was a look at the world\u2019s richest man that felt monumental even as it drained viewers over its four-hour running time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other was a shock: Lance Oppenheim and Nathan Fielder\u2019s \u201cYou Can See Everything\u201d<\/a><\/strong> premiered as a surprise film at Telluride and left audiences dumbfounded with its look at Elizabeth Holmes in the month before she began serving a prison term for defrauding investors in her company Theranos. If the Academy\u2019s Documentary Branch doesn\u2019t embrace the slippery doc\/fiction hybrid beloved by Fielder fans, there\u2019s always a chance it could hit the spot for general voters \u2013 unless those mind-boggled raves out of Telluride had something to do with the surprise unveiling and the altitude.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\t
\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"You\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t
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\n\t\t\tElizabeth Holmes Insists She Did Nothing Wrong in New 'You Can See Everything' Trailer<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"Tom
Tom Cruise in “Digger” (Credit: Warner Bros.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A post-festival possibility that some people have seen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One of the biggest contenders to skip the fall festivals was Alejandro G. Inarritu\u2019s \u201cDigger,\u201d<\/a><\/strong> with Tom Cruise as a billionaire mogul (there seem to be a lot of them on screens these days) in a rare comedy for the ambitious Mexican director. The film premiered in London and had a few Stateside screenings recently, with more coming in the next week. So far, it\u2019s safe to say that the film has been wildly divisive: It\u2019s completely excessive and over-the-top in a way that seems to be exhausting to some and thrilling to others, while a big twist recasts everything you\u2019ve seen and forces you to reconsider those scenery-chewing performances by Cruise, John Goodman and others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lot of people seem to be predicting that it\u2019ll flop with voters (think: Damien Chazelle\u2019s \u201cBabylon\u201d), but it\u2019s so seriously wacky that it might also get points for guts and nerve. It won\u2019t hurt that it gives people a reason to vote for Tom Cruise, which has been hard to find during his years in the action-star arena.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Zendaya in ‘Dune: Part Two’ (Warner Bros.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Contenders that haven\u2019t screened yet<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This Oscar-watcher\u2019s rule of thumb is that if you come out of the fall festivals and there are three or four or six big movies that have yet to screen, you should assume that 75% of them will not be serious contenders. The problem is that at this point, you don\u2019t know which 25% might score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, the end to Denis Villeneuve\u2019s \u201cDune\u201d trilogy, \u201cDune: Part Three,\u201d<\/strong> seems pretty close to a sure thing. You\u2019d think the pedigree of \u201cThe Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth\u201d<\/strong> would make that a reliable bet as well: screenplay by Quentin Tarantino based on the character that won Brad Pitt an Oscar for \u201cOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood,\u201d directed by three-time Best Director nominee David Fincher. But only one of Fincher\u2019s last four movies has earned a best-pic nomination, and his pulpier genre exercises \u2013 \u201cThe Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,\u201d \u201cGone Girl,\u201d \u201cThe Killer\u201d \u2013 are the ones that tend to miss out. So who knows?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also a David-Fincher-adjacent semi-sequel, Aaron Sorkin\u2019s \u201cThe Social Reckoning\u201d<\/strong> is a follow-up to the Sorkin-written, Fincher-directed \u201cThe Social Network,\u201d with Jeremy Strong taking over the Mark Zuckerberg role from Jesse Eisenberg. We can expect smart, fast talking, but 2020\u2019s \u201cThe Trial of the Chicago 7\u201d is the only one of the three previous movies Sorkin has directed to be nominated for the top Oscar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other films still waiting in the wings are a trio of New York Film Festival premieres: Tony Gilroy\u2019s \u201cBehemoth!\u201d <\/strong>with Pedro Pascal as a cellist and film composer; Luca Guadagnino\u2019s \u201cArtificial,\u201d<\/strong> with Andrew Garfield as the CEO of OpenAI; and Tom McCarthy\u2019s \u201cA Statement,\u201d<\/strong> with Paul Rudd and Paul Giamatti as part of an ensemble playing scientists and policymakers trying to craft a statement on climate change in 1980.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another film that hasn\u2019t screened yet but holds real promise, at least to me, is \u201cWerwulf\u201d<\/strong> by Robert Eggers, who ought to have gotten more awards traction than he did for \u201cThe Lighthouse\u201d and \u201cNosferatu.\u201d No, I don\u2019t really expect it to become a Best Picture nominee. But a werewolf movie with Willem Dafoe speaking dialogue that\u2019s all in Middle English? Damn, sign me up.  <\/p>\n\n\n

\n\t
\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\tSurprise! Quentin Tarantino Wrote a \u2018Cliff Booth\u2019 Novel That\u2019s Out Later This Year<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"Anthony
Anthony Ippolito stars as Sylvester Stallone in I PLAY ROCKY, from Amazon MGM Studios.

Photo Credit: Claire Folger<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Best Picture predictions as of right now<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Given all of this, where do we stand for now? If I had to come up with a list of what I think the Best Picture nominees would be, I\u2019d start with these seven films, more or less in this order:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Odyssey\u201d
\u201cWild Horse Nine\u201d
\u201cLa Bola Negra\u201d
\u201cDune: Part Three\u201d
\u201cI Play Rocky\u201d
\u201cFjord\u201d
\u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the final three slots, I see at least eight films that seem to have a shot, barring any surprises surfacing between now and when voting begins in January. I\u2019d currently go with this trio, the first two because they moved me so much and the third because it\u2019s just so batty:
\u201cElsinore\u201d
\u201cTender Loving Care\u201d
\u201cDigger\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But I wouldn\u2019t rule out these:
\u201cThe Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth\u201d
\u201cPrimetime\u201d
\u201cThe Debut\u201d
\u201cBeing Heumann\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As always, all opinions are subject to change because this is awards season.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\tOn a Box Office Weekend With Multiple Acclaimed Films, 'Avengers: Endgame' Could Top Them All<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Venice, Telluride and Toronto didn’t tell us as much as usual, but “The Odyssey” does have some competitors<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1482,"featured_media":8085977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-full-width-with-ads","format":"standard","meta":{"byline":{"profiles":[{"type":"byline_id","atts":{"term_id":504357,"post_id":7302600}}]},"_links_to":"","_links_to_type":0,"nb_breaking_email_type":"748ab317-e4f3-4ae0-9786-7a9d01f09fd9","nb_breaking_template":"pro-single-story.html","nb_breaking_from_name":"TheWrap Awards","nb_breaking_subject":"","nb_breaking_preview":"","nb_breaking_list":[],"nb_breaking_header_img":7555415,"nb_breaking_should_send":false,"nb_breaking_content":"\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

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Discover why entertainment executives and professionals rely on the WrapPRO platform daily for exclusive coverage, analysis, deeper reporting, and access to VIP events & screenings throughout the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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